HopWRF-ARW Ensemble Model Output

Four Nested 20 km -> 4.0 km Domain Runs to 18-hours Every 3 Hours
A Collaboration between Tom Hultquist (student at U of MN) and John Wetter of Hopkins Public Schools
special thanks to Bryan Mroczka for critical assistance in developing the images

Lake Wave Model Output
84-hour runs updated every 3 hours
Lake Minnetonka
latest run: 10 AM CDT 1 June 2017
Mille Lacs Lake
latest run: 10 AM CDT 1 June 2017
Utilizes the GLERL Wave Model, with the NWS NDFD providing wind and temperature information.
Individual Member Products (0-18 hrs)
Member #1
latest run: 15Z - 02/18/2018
Member #2
latest run: 15Z - 02/18/2018
Member #3
latest run: 15Z - 02/18/2018
Member #4
latest run: 15Z - 02/18/2018
Ensemble Products
Postage Stamps
latest run: 15Z - 02/18/2018
Ensemble Means
latest run: 15Z - 02/18/2018
Spaghetti Plots
latest run: 15Z - 02/18/2018
Probability Plots
latest run: 15Z - 02/18/2018
Neighborhood Probability Plots
latest run: 09Z - 07/26/2017
Plumes (point-specific Plots
latest run: 15Z - 02/18/2018
Click here for details on individual member configuration. Information on derived ensemble products are available from the respective product pages linked above.
MPAS-Global Output
Global | CONUS | North Central US | Northeast US | Ohio Valley | Southeast US | Caribbean
latest run: 06Z - 02/18/2018

00Z and 12Z runs go to 180 hours, 06Z and 18Z runs go to 96 hours, all are Global simulations (Voronoi Mesh with 163842 Grid Cells), but 06Z and 18Z runs utilize variable global mesh with higher resolution over North America. Details on the MPAS modeling system can be found at https://mpas-dev.github.io/
NOAA/NWS Global Ensemble Forecast System (GEFS) Plots
CONUS | North Central US
latest run: 12Z - 02/18/2018

6-Hourly output to 240 hours runs every 6 hours)
Multi-Radar Multi-Sensor (MRMS) Output
Rotation and MESH Tracks
Climate Forecast System Ensemble Output
weeks 3-6 guidance updated every 6 hours
(also daily mean max/min temperatures thru 90 days)
Realtime Output
Central US Images & KMZs
Archived Output
CFS Northern Hemisphere and U.S. Output
latest run: 00 UTC 05 January 2018
DISCLAIMER: The mesoscale prognostics depicted on these pages may not be  available at all times. The accuracy or reliability of the data is not guaranteed nor warranted in any way. The data is provided as is and should not be used as the sole resource for decision making. Mesoscale forecast guidance is best interpreted by a professional meteorologist who is familiar with the particular modeling system, including any model biases. 
Please contact Tom Hultquist with questions and/or concerns about this page or the model information it is displaying.